BUSINESS INFORM JOURNAL.

УКР

ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

SITE SECTIONS

The Crucial Factors and Prospects for the Recovery of the World Economy in the Global COVID-19 Recession
Kalyuzhna N. H., Kovtun T. K.

Kalyuzhna, Nataliya H., and Kovtun, Taras K. (2020) “The Crucial Factors and Prospects for the Recovery of the World Economy in the Global COVID-19 Recession.” Business Inform 12:39–46.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-12-39-46

Section: Globalization Processes in the Economy

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 0

Download article (pdf) -

UDC 338.124; 339.97

Abstract:
The article focuses on identifying and systematizing the hallmarks of the COVID-19 recession as unprecedented in terms of the both spread and impact on the global economy in the phase of business activity downturn. The dynamics of the main indicators of economic growth are researched and it is substantiated that the negative linear forecast trends allow forecasting the long-term recovery period after the current global recession. It is shown that the global recession of 2020 negatively affects the prospects for the recovery of major national economies of the world, given the high probability of the introduction of repeated quarantine restrictions. Based on the analysis of the dynamics of the index of global economic uncertainty, the world economy is confirmed to be in the most uncertain state during the period of observations. According to the analysis of the values of the barometer of world trade in goods in 2020, negative changes in the structure and dynamics of foreign trade turnover and doubt for the rapid recovery of global supply chains were evidenced. Based on the generalization of the results of the study, key distinctive signs of the COVID-19 economic recession have been systematized justifying that, in addition to any recession inherent in the loss of growth rate of world production, the current economic crisis is accompanied by a drop reaching the critical deadlines of a number of indicators of the intensity of global development, which confirms its unprecedented spread and impact on the world economy. It is substantiated that the confirmation of the determined trends allows to predict the long-term negative consequences of the modern global recession, which leads to the need to substantiate the directions of recovery of the world economy and foreign trade cooperation of the countries under crisis conditions.

Keywords: global economic recession, world economy, COVID-19, lockdown, indicator of economic development, index of global economic uncertainty, barometer of world trade in goods, systematization.

Fig.: 5. Tabl.: 2. Bibl.: 17.

Kalyuzhna Nataliya H. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of World Economy, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Kovtun Taras K. – Student, Kyiv National University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)

List of references in article

“Tentative Stabilization, Sluggish Recovery?“ World Economic Outlook. January 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/01/20/weo-update-january2020?fbclid=IwAR3HKzp6OProIjQ79n5oipMkuFsvB31shxN-6uWmlfb7cv_23wcJBHuBs4I
“A Crisis Like No Other, An Uncertain Recovery“. World Economic Outlook. June 2020. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2020/06/24/WEOUpdateJune2020
World Development Indicators. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator
“World Economic Outlook Database. Report for Selected Countries and Subjects: October 2020“. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/weo-database/2020/October
“The Global Economic Outlook During the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Changed World“. https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2020/06/08/the-global-economic-outlook-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-a-changed-world
Dolbnieva, D. V. “Vplyv COVID-19 na ekonomiku krain svitu“ [The Impact of COVID-19 on the World's Economies]. Problemy ekonomiky, no. 1 (2020): 20-26. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-0712-2020-1-20-26
Chepeliuk, M. I. “COVID-19 yak hlobalna kryza v umovakh novoi sotsioekonomichnoi realnosti“ [COVID-19 as a Global Crisis in the New Socio-Economic Reality]. Biznes Inform, no. 10 (2020): 29-35. DOI: https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2020-10-29-35
Kulytskyi, S. “Problemy rozvytku ekonomiky Ukrainy, obumovleni pandemiieiu koronavirusu COVID-19 u sviti, ta poshuk shliakhiv yikh rozviazannia“ [Problems of Economic Development of Ukraine Caused by the Pandemic of Coronavirus COVID-19 in the World, and the Search for Ways to Solve Them]. Ukraina: podii, fakty, komentari. 2020. http://www.nbuviap.gov.ua/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4889:otsinka-perspektiv-rozvitku-ukrajinskoji-ekonomiki-v-umovakh-pandemiji-covid-19&catid=8&Itemid=350
Zakha, D. et al. “Ekonomichnyi vplyv pandemii COVID-19 na Ukrainu : analitychne doslidzhennia“ [Economic Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Ukraine: an Analytical Study]. https://rpr.org.ua/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/GET_UKR_PS_01_2020_ua.pdf
“Ukraina: vplyv COVID-19 na ekonomiku i suspilstvo. Konsensus-prohnoz: bachennia postpandemichnoho rozvytku u 2020-2024 rr. ochyma ekspertiv ta molodi“ [Ukraine: The Impact of COVID-19 on the Economy and Society. Consensus Forecast: Vision of Post-pandemic Development in 2020-2024 through the Eyes of Experts and Youth]. https://www.unicef.org/ukraine/documents/consensus-report
Balcilar, M. “COVID-19 Recession: The Global Economy in Crises“. Conference: International Conference on Eurasian Economies. Baku, Azerbaijan, 2020. DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.18258.17608
Ozili, R., and Arun, T. “Spillover of COVID-19: Impact on the Global Economy“. SRN Electronic Journal, April (2020). DOI: 10.2139/ssrn.3562570
Kituyi, M. “Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on trade and development: transitioning to a new normal“. https://unctad.org/webflyer/impact-covid-19-pandemic-trade-and-development-transitioning-new-normal
“COVID-19 and World Trade“. https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/covid19_e/covid19_e.htm
“The Economy in the Time of COVID-19“. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/33555/9781464815706.pdf?sequence=10&isAllowed=y
“Economic Policy Uncertainty Index“. https://www.policyuncertainty.com/
“WTO Trade Barometers“. https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/statis_e/wtoi_e.htm

FOR AUTHORS

License Contract

Conditions of Publication

Article Requirements

Regulations on Peer-Reviewing

Publication Contract

Current Issue

Frequently asked questions

INFORMATION

The Plan of Scientific Conferences

OUR PARTNERS

Journal «The Problems of Economy»

The site and its metadata are licensed under CC BY-SA.

Write to webmaster