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Liburkina L. M.

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Demand Modeling and Logistics Capacity Planning in Wine Distribution Considering Seasonal Fluctuations
Kochubei D. V.

Kochubei, Dmytro V. (2025) “Demand Modeling and Logistics Capacity Planning in Wine Distribution Considering Seasonal Fluctuations.” Business Inform 8:233–241.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-8-233-241

Section: Economics of Trade and Services

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 29

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UDC 658.6

Abstract:
The aim of the article is to study the logistic aspects of wine product distribution in Ukraine amid market transformation caused by military actions, increasing import dependence, and changes in consumer demand. The article analyzes the dynamics of wine production, import, and domestic consumption in Ukraine from 2022 to 2024, identifies key industry challenges, including the loss of production capacities in temporarily occupied territories, and develops a market forecast for 2025 considering seasonal demand trends. The relevance of a comprehensive approach to managing logistic resources is substantiated to ensure a stable level of service during peak loads. The article applies a combination of statistical forecasting methods (ARIMA, Holt-Winters) and machine learning models (XGBoost, LSTM) to assess seasonal demand, which allowed the average forecast error to be reduced to 6–8%. A resource planning scheme has been proposed, based on predictive models and considering storage requirements, delivery times, and workforce reserves during peak periods. Key opportunities to improve the efficiency of the wine distribution logistics system have been identified, including the implementation of cross-docking, process digitalization, optimization of transport routes, and flexible personnel management. A series of practical solutions has been proposed to stabilize the logistics system in wine distribution. The research results are practically valuable for distributors, logistics operators, analysts, and managers in the alcoholic beverage market. Directions for further research have been suggested, particularly regarding the implementation of green logistics, integration into European supply chains, assessment of the carbon footprint, and analysis of the impact of digital technologies on the sustainability of logistics systems.

Keywords: distribution logistics, wine products, demand forecasting, seasonality, resource planning, transport logistics, digitalization of logistic processes.

Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 1. Bibl.: 15.

Kochubei Dmytro V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Enterprise Trade and Logistics, State University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

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