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From Fundamental Value to Market Pricing: A Methodology for Valuing High-Growth Technology Companies
Burianov V. O., Kulish G. P.

Burianov, Valentyn O., and Kulish, Ganna P. (2025) “From Fundamental Value to Market Pricing: A Methodology for Valuing High-Growth Technology Companies.” Business Inform 9:35–51.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-9-35-51

Section: Foreign Experience

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 338.27:336.76

Abstract:
The article examines the criteria and approaches for assessing the value of a company (Palantir Technologies) and its shares. An evaluation of intrinsic value was conducted, considering revenue volumes and their forecasts for the company’s main business lines; operating margin, reinvestment policy, and cost of capital, which enabled the construction of a discounted cash flow model and substantiated the company’s share value under various development scenarios. The main methodological approaches for determining the stock price of the studied company were analyzed, namely: comparative, regression, and terminal value methods (using the EV/EBIT multiple as the basis for the terminal period). The sample included five mature U.S. software companies that best represent a stable condition in this sector. It has been demonstrated that the terminal multiplier method produces a valuation of Palantir’s stock higher than its current market price, and if market approaches to valuing mature software companies remain unchanged, one can conclude that Palantir is currently undervalued. Calculations of the discounted cash flow model are presented, followed by an evaluation of Palantir’s value under alternative scenarios. It has been shown that in high-growth companies, the scenario that is actually realized plays the most important role. The largest fluctuations in valuation results depend on this. To assess the risk associated with the chosen narrative, a sensitivity analysis was conducted based on combinations of different scenarios. The calculations made it possible to determine how Palantir’s stock price changes under each scenario and which scenarios correspond to its current market value. Discrepancies were found in the obtained evaluation results, and conclusions regarding the company’s stock price and market expectations were substantiated, which should be considered by market participants when making investment decisions.

Keywords: company value, stock value, discounted cash flows, risks, operating margin, reinvestment, securitization.

Fig.: 6. Tabl.: 12. Bibl.: 39.

Burianov Valentyn O. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Corporate Finance and Controlling, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Kulish Ganna P. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Professor, Department of Corporate Finance and Controlling, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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