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The Geopolitical Origins of the Trade Confrontation Between the USA and China
Strzhelska I. O., Kalyuzhna N. H.

Strzhelska, Iryna O., and Kalyuzhna, Nataliya H. (2025) “The Geopolitical Origins of the Trade Confrontation Between the USA and China.” Business Inform 9:8–16.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-9-8-16

Section: International Economic Relations

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 26

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UDC 339.5(73+510):327.5

Abstract:
The article substantiates that the clear geopolitical subtext of the bilateral confrontation between the USA and China makes it practically impossible to de-escalate bilateral trade tensions in the foreseeable future, which highlights the importance of analyzing the origins of geopolitical rivalry as a prerequisite for the trade confrontation between these two global development leaders. The dynamics and evolution of USA-China bilateral trade relations are examined, from economic partnership to systemic confrontation, which intensified in 2018 and expanded further during Donald Trump’s second presidential term. It is shown that an additional reinforcing factor in the trade-economic confrontation is the rapid increase in China’s R&D expenditures, indicating China’s gradual catching up with the USA in terms of research and development investment, as well as enhancing its role in global scientific and technological competition. The causes of the conflict have been examined, including: investment imbalances, the growth of China’s economic and technological power, threats to U.S. national security, and competition in research and development. The consequences of the trade war for the global economy are highlighted, in particular: the restructuring of supply chains, heightened technological competition, and risks to global financial stability. It is argued that one of the key issues posed by the USA-China confrontation for the global economy is the reorientation of global supply chains, which leads to the restructuring of production networks and a transformation in the perception of their traditional efficiency. Possible scenarios for the development of the confrontation in 2025–2026 are presented: a full-scale tariff war, technological «decoupling», a potential strategic agreement, and an asymmetric response from China. It is also argued that a further full-scale escalation of the trade conflict between the USA and China will have significant, predominantly negative effects on the global economy. The prospects for further research are outlined, focusing on analyzing the likelihood of potential scenarios of trade confrontation between the USA and China materializing and their impact on the global economy.

Keywords: geopolitical rivalry, trade confrontation, USA, China, tariff war, national security, investment, technological competition, R&D, global economy.

Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 2. Bibl.: 18.

Strzhelska Iryna O. – Applicant, Faculty of International Trade and Law, State University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Kalyuzhna Nataliya H. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of World Economy, State University of Trade and Economics (19 Kіoto Str., Kyiv, 02156, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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