BUSINESS INFORM JOURNAL.

УКР

ENG

Search:

REGISTRATION CERTIFICATE

KV #19905-9705 PR dated 02.04.2013.

FOUNDERS

RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

ROR

EDRPOU 05481984

According to the decision No. 802 of the National Council of Television and Radio Broadcasting of Ukraine dated 14.03.2024, is registered as a subject in the field of print media.
ID R30-03156

PUBLISHER

Liburkina L. M.

CATALOG

The Integrated Methodology for Assessing the Potential of Tourism Demand During Wartime
Vlashchenko N. M., Radionova O. M.

Vlashchenko, Nataliia M., and Radionova, Olha M. (2026) “The Integrated Methodology for Assessing the Potential of Tourism Demand During Wartime.” Business Inform 2:187–196.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-2-187-196

Section: Economics of Trade and Services

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 0

Download article (pdf) -

UDC 338.48:911.3

Abstract:
The aim of the article is to develop and substantiate an integrated methodology for assessing the potential of tourism demand under wartime conditions, considering economic, behavioral, security, and socio-psychological factors, as well as latent demand, to support scientifically grounded planning for the development of tourism enterprises and destinations. The study employs a systems approach, allowing tourism demand to be considered as a multidimensional phenomenon shaped by economic, behavioral, security, and socio-psychological factors. An integrative approach using weighting coefficients and latent demand analysis is applied for the quantitative assessment of demand potential. In addition, content analysis of scientific sources, statistical data, and sociological survey results was conducted, which helped systematize indicators of tourist activity and develop a scientifically grounded model for assessing the potential of tourist demand under martial law conditions. Approaches to evaluating tourist demand under martial law conditions were examined based on the analysis of both foreign and domestic studies, including tourist behavior models and the theory of planned behavior. An integrated methodology for assessing the potential of tourist demand, considering five key components – travel frequency, seasonality, factors influencing season choice, types of recreation, and attitudes toward travel – was proposed. The use of weighting coefficients for each component was substantiated, and an integrated market potential indicator was calculated using Ukraine as an example. The testing of the methodology made it possible to identify a latent segment of tourist demand and provide scientific and practical recommendations for tourism enterprises, destination managers, and marketing strategies. Applying an integrated approach to assessing the potential of tourist demand under martial law lays the groundwork for the further development of methodological foundations for the quantitative measurement of the tourism market’s resilience. In the future, it is advisable to deepen research on improving the system of indicators for assessing latent demand, taking into account regional differences and the dynamics of the security situation.

Keywords: tourist demand, integrated methodology, latent demand, martial law, tourism enterprises.

Fig.: 5. Tabl.: 2. Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 19.

Vlashchenko Nataliia M. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Tourism and Hotel Industry, O. M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv (17 Chornohlazivska Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Radionova Olha M. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Tourism and Hotel Management, O. M. Beketov National University of Urban Economy in Kharkiv (17 Chornohlazivska Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

Ajzen I. (1991). The theory of planned behavior. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 2(50), 179–211. https://doi.org/10.1016/0749-5978(91)90020-T
Babych Yu. P. & Prymak T. Yu. (2020). Suchasni metody prosuvannia ta stymuliuvannia zbutu turystychnykh produktiv za dopomohoiu sotsialnykh merezh [Modern Methods of Promotion and Sales Stimulation of Tourism Products Using Social Networks]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 22. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2020-22-80
Beidyk O. O. (2001). Rekreatsiino-turystski resursy Ukrainy: metodolohiia ta metodyka analizu, terminolohiia, raionuvannia [Recreational and Tourist Resources of Ukraine: Methodology and Techniques of Analysis, Terminology, Zoning]. Kyiv: VPTs «Kyivskyi universytet».
Berkova O. P. & Borysiuk O. A. (2023). Rol marketynhovykh doslidzhen rehionalnykh turystychnykh rynkiv [The Role of Marketing Research of Regional Tourism Markets]. Ekonomika ta suspilstvo, 48. https://doi.org/10.32782/2524-0072/2023-48-2
Bondarchuk K. P., Kyfiak O. V. & Horishevskyi P. A. (2024). Analiz vzaiemodii marketynhu y obsluhovuvannia kliientiv u hotelno-restorannomu biznesi Ukrainy [Analysis of the Interaction between Marketing and Customer Service in the Hotel and Restaurant Business of Ukraine]. Akademichni vizii, 30. https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.10960104
Crouch G. I. (1992). Effect of income and price on international tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 4(19), 643–664. https://doi.org/10.1016/0160-7383(92)90059-X
DART. Rezultaty onlain-opytuvannia shchodo podorozhei Ukrainoiu pid chas viiny [Results of an Online Survey Regarding Travel in Ukraine During the War]. https://surl.li/nkwqyz
Dwyer L. & Forsyth P. (1998). Economic significance of cruise tourism. Annals of Tourism Research, 2(25), 393–415. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0160-7383(97)00098-4
Hall C. M. (2010). Crisis events in tourism: Subjects of crisis in tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 5(13), 401–417. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2010.491900
Kyfiak V. & Kyfiak O. (2020). Didzhytalizatsiia protsesiv rozvytku turystychnykh destynatsii u zakhidnoukrainskykh prykordonnykh rehionakh [Digitalization of Development Processes of Tourist Destinations in Western Ukrainian Border Regions]. Visnyk Ternopilskoho natsionalnoho ekonomichnoho universytetu, 2, 162–173. https://doi.org/10.35774/visnyk2020.02.162
Kyfiak V. F. (2008). Orhanizatsiia turyzmu: navch. posib [Tourism Organization: tutorial]. Chernivtsi: Knyhy-KhKhI.
Lam T. & Hsu C. H. C. (2006). Predicting behavioral intention of choosing a travel destination. Tourism Management, 4(27), 589–599. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2005.02.003
Liubitseva O. O. (2003). Rynok turystychnykh posluh (heoprostorovi aspekty) [Tourism Services Market (Geospatial Aspects)]. Kyiv: Alterpres.
Moisieieva N. I., Krupitsa I. V. & Bairachna O. K. (2021). Aktualni trendy rozvytku rynku turystystychnykh posluh Ukrainy v suchasnykh umovakh [Current Trends in the Development of the Tourism Services Market of Ukraine in Modern Conditions]. Visnyk Khmelnytskoho natsionalnoho universytetu. Seriia «Ekonomichni nauky», 3, 310–315. https://doi.org/10.31891/2307-5740-2021-294-3-51
North D. C. (1990). Institutions, institutional change and economic performance. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Quintal V. A., Lee J. A. & Soutar G. N. (2010). Risk, uncertainty and the theory of planned behavior: A tourism example. Tourism Management, 6(31), 797–805. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2009.08.006
Reisinger Y. & Mavondo F. (2005). Travel Anxiety and Intentions to Travel Internationally: Implications of Travel Risk Perception. Journal of Travel Research, 3(43), 212–225. https://doi.org/10.1177/0047287504272017
Smyrnov I. & Liubitseva O. (2022). Vidkladenyi popyt na turystyski posluhy yak chynnyk rozvytku turyzmu v postpandemichnyi chas u sviti ta v Ukraini [Pent-up Demand for Tourism Services as a Factor in Tourism Development in Post-Pandemic Times in the World and in Ukraine]. Visnyk Kyivskoho natsionalnoho universytetu kultury i mystetstv. Seriia «Turyzm», 1(5), 6–26. https://doi.org/10.31866/2616-7603.5.1.2022.261993
Vlashchenko N. M. & Radionova O. M. (2024). Innovatsiini sotsialni tekhnolohii u sferi turyzmu ta industrii hostynnosti [Innovative Social Technologies in the Field of Tourism and the Hospitality Industry]. Biznes Inform, 10, 246–252. https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2024-10-246-252