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Liburkina L. M.

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Financial Monitoring in the System of Ensuring Financial Security: International Practice, Risk Analytics, and a Mathematical Model of Interaction with Investigative Authorities
Zhuk I. I., Vershyhora V. H., Ostafiichuk P. V., Sukholytkyi A. D., Yakymyk S. B.

Zhuk, Inna I. et al. (2026) “Financial Monitoring in the System of Ensuring Financial Security: International Practice, Risk Analytics, and a Mathematical Model of Interaction with Investigative Authorities.” Business Inform 2:289–297.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-2-289-297

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 336.7:343.9:004.9

Abstract:
The article explores financial monitoring as a system-forming element of national financial security in the context of the digitalization of financial services, the growth of cross-border flows, and the increasing complexity of financial crime structures. It is substantiated that the scale of legalization of criminal proceeds (2–5% of global GDP) has a pronounced macro-financial and institutional impact, which necessitates a shift from formal compliance to measurable effectiveness of the AML/CFT system. International approaches of FATF, the EU, and the US are summarized and their implications for organizing the interaction of financial intelligence with investigative authorities are identified. An analytical framework of indicators is proposed in the logic of input – process – output – outcome, which allows evaluating not only the volume of suspicious transaction reports but also the quality of the signal, response speed, and procedural outcomes. An economic-mathematical model of transactional risk scoring based on the logistic function and a procedure for calibrating escalation thresholds, taking into account the resource constraints of investigative bodies (K • h ? H), has been developed. The metrics E2R/E2R* and QoP have been substantiated as tools for measuring the transition from an analytical signal to a procedurally significant outcome and for standardizing the information package. Network analysis of financial flows has been integrated to detect multi-step schemes (layering), and an adjustment of the scoring probability has been proposed considering the network risk coefficient. For macro-level assessment, an integrated AML resilience index (IAS) has been developed, which can be used in the national risk assessment (NRA) process. It has been proved that the combination of international standards, risk analytics, and mathematical modeling provides a basis for enhancing procedural efficiency and strengthening the financial security of the State.

Keywords: financial monitoring, financial security, risk-oriented approach, risk analysis, mathematical modeling, network analysis, financial intelligence, investigative bodies, national risk assessment.

Tabl.: 8. Bibl.: 12.

Zhuk Inna I. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Pro-rector, Private Higher Educational Institution «Bukovinian University» (2a Ch. Darvina Str., Chernivtsi, 58000, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Vershyhora Veleriia H. – Candidate of Sciences (Physics and Mathematics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Computer Systems and Technologies, Private Higher Educational Institution «Bukovinian University» (2a Ch. Darvina Str., Chernivtsi, 58000, Ukraine)
Ostafiichuk Petro V. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Accounting and Finance, Private Higher Educational Institution «Bukovinian University» (2a Ch. Darvina Str., Chernivtsi, 58000, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Sukholytkyi Andrii D. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Accounting and Finance, Private Higher Educational Institution «Bukovinian University» (2a Ch. Darvina Str., Chernivtsi, 58000, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Yakymyk Serhii B. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Accounting and Finance, Private Higher Educational Institution «Bukovinian University» (2a Ch. Darvina Str., Chernivtsi, 58000, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

List of references in article

European Parliament & Council of the European Union. (2024, May 31). Regulation (EU) 2024/1624 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 31 May 2024 on the prevention of the use of the financial system for the purposes of money laundering or terrorist financing. Official Journal of the European Union. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1624/oj/eng
European Parliament & Council of the European Union. (2018, October 23). Directive (EU) 2018/1673 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 23 October 2018 on combating money laundering by criminal law. Official Journal of the European Union. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/dir/2018/1673/oj/eng
European Parliament & Council of the European Union. (2024, May 31). Regulation (EU) 2024/1620 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 31 May 2024 establishing the Authority for Anti-Money Laundering and Countering the Financing of Terrorism (AMLA). Official Journal of the European Union. https://eur-lex.europa.eu/eli/reg/2024/1620/oj/eng
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Financial Action Task Force (FATF). (2017). Private Sector Information Sharing. November 2017. Financial Action Task Force (FATF). https://www.fatf-gafi.org/content/dam/fatf-gafi/reports/Private-Sector-Information-Sharing.pdf
Financial Action Task Force (FATF). (2014). Guidance for a Risk-Based Approach. The Banking Sector. October 2014. Financial Action Task Force (FATF). https://www.fatf-gafi.org/content/dam/fatf-gafi/guidance/Risk-Based-Approach-Banking-Sector.pdf
Financial Action Task Force (FATF). (2025). The FATF Recommendations: International Standards on Combating Money Laundering and the Financing of Terrorism & Proliferation (As amended October 2025). Financial Action Task Force (FATF). https://www.fatf-gafi.org/en/publications/Fatfrecommendations/Fatf-recommendations.html
Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). (2024, June 7). FinCEN Year in Review for Fiscal Year 2023. Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN). https://www.fincen.gov/news/news-releases/fincen-year-review-fiscal-year-2023
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World Bank. Guidance in Preparing for the National ML/TF Risk Assessment (NRA). World Bank. https://documents.worldbank.org/pt/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099543206292214353

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