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Liburkina L. M.

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The Transformation of the Financial Analysis Methodology in the System of Anticipatory Management of Agro-Sector Enterprises under Martial Law Conditions
Grebeniuk N. O., Volovod A. M.

Grebeniuk, Natalia O., and Volovod, Andrii M. (2026) “The Transformation of the Financial Analysis Methodology in the System of Anticipatory Management of Agro-Sector Enterprises under Martial Law Conditions.” Business Inform 3:475–482.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-3-475-482

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 658.15:005.334

Abstract:
The aim of the article is to substantiate the necessity of implementing anticipatory management tools in the financial management practice of agricultural enterprises and to develop an applied methodology for liquidity stress testing under conditions of high uncertainty. The article demonstrates that under the prolonged war and critical market volatility, traditional financial analysis methods, which are focused solely on retrospective data, lose their relevance. They cannot adequately account for specific risks such as the sudden physical destruction of assets, the emergence of severe logistical restrictions, and the blocking of export corridors. Based on a critical analysis of existing approaches, an original model for liquidity stress testing has been developed, which conceptually relies on the regulatory logic of the National Bank of Ukraine Resolution No. 351. The fundamental element of the proposed methodology is the integration of the LGE (Loss Given Event) indicator – a coefficient of expected losses, which allows discounting the book value of different groups of assets depending on current security threats and their geographical location. The practical testing of the methodology was carried out based on the consolidated financial statements of one of the largest Ukrainian agroholdings – Kernel Holding S. A. for the years 2022–2024. The results of the study confirm that classical liquidity ratios are capable of generating false positive signals about business stability, concealing assets whose quick monetization is objectively impossible. The conducted stress testing revealed a decrease in the company’s actual solvency reserve under shock scenarios by more than 27%. A practical toolkit has been developed for financial managers, which allows for a realistic assessment of asset quality under conditions of uncertainty and for the use of anticipatory analysis results to objectively evaluate the degree of investment attractiveness of an enterprise or the threat of its bankruptcy. The scientific novelty of the study lies in the adaptation of banking regulatory requirements to the needs of the corporate sector.

Keywords: anticipatory management; financial analysis; stress testing; investment attractiveness.

Tabl.: 2. Bibl.: 16.

Grebeniuk Natalia O. – Senior Lecturer, Department of Finance, Banking and Insurance, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Volovod Andrii M. – Student, V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University (4 Svobody Square, Kharkіv, 61022, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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