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RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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Liburkina L. M.

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Trends in the Development of Foreign Investment Under Martial Law
Koliada O. V.

Koliada, Olena V. (2026) “Trends in the Development of Foreign Investment Under Martial Law.” Business Inform 3:80–88.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-3-80-88

Section: International Economic Relations

Article is written in Ukrainian
Downloads/views: 16

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UDC 330.322

Abstract:
The aim of the article is a comprehensive study of the transformation of foreign investment processes in conditions of geopolitical instability and armed conflicts, with a particular focus on Ukraine’s experience in 2021–2025. The relevance of the work is driven by the need to rethink the mechanisms for attracting capital into the economy of a country at war and to identify new priority sectors for postwar recovery. The object of the study is the processes of foreign investment flows in countries experiencing armed conflicts. Trends in capital movements in countries affected by wars in the 21st century, particularly Syria, Libya, Iraq, and Afghanistan, are analyzed, showing that wars usually lead to a «flight-to-safety» effect and a reset of capital flows, except in cases of extractive industries. The main focus is on analyzing the dynamics of foreign direct investment (FDI) in Ukraine. An «anomaly of recovery» was identified for 2023–2024, when despite hostilities, investment growth was observed – up to USD 4.8 billion. The structure of these inflows was analyzed, with 75% consisting of reinvested profits of existing companies, which is explained by the effect of currency restrictions and the strategic adaptation of foreign businesses. Structural changes in sectoral investment priorities during 2021–2025 were analyzed. It was found that in 2025, the leaders in capital attraction were the energy sector (32%) and the defense-industrial complex (18%), indicating a fundamental shift in investment priorities compared to the pre-war 2021, when traditional industry and trade dominated. The geographic origin of capital and the regional specifics of investment within Ukraine were separately studied. It was proved that only four regions managed to increase FDI volumes during the full-scale invasion. The conclusions emphasize that further investment attraction critically depends on the development of war risk insurance mechanisms and State support for innovative sectors.

Keywords: foreign direct investment, martial law, reinvestment, war risks, geopolitical tension.

Fig.: 4. Tabl.: 1. Bibl.: 12.

Koliada Olena V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Policy, Marketing and Business Analytics, State Tax University (31 Universytetska Str., Irpin, Kyiv region, 08205, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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