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Liburkina L. M.

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Methodological Aspects of Stress Testing Financial Planning in Vertically Integrated Structures of the Livestock Sector
Polishchuk O. A., Polishchuk O. T.

Polishchuk, Oleksandr A., and Polishchuk, Olena T. (2026) “Methodological Aspects of Stress Testing Financial Planning in Vertically Integrated Structures of the Livestock Sector.” Business Inform 4:294–302.

Section: Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 338.439.4:636.4

Abstract:
The article scientifically substantiates and practically implements a methodology for stress testing financial planning for agribusiness entities with a vertically integrated structure. The relevance of the study is driven by unprecedented volatility in commodity markets, energy crises, and geopolitical challenges that require livestock complex management to transition from static planning to dynamic scenario modeling. The aim of the study is to develop and scientifically ground a methodology for stress testing the financial plans of vertically integrated livestock complexes to ensure their strategic stability under conditions of systemic uncertainty for the 2026–2028 period. A comprehensive financial model for the operation of a pig-breeding complex based on the closed-cycle principle has been developed. The model is based on the combination of three key links: crop production (raw material autonomy), livestock farming (biological transformation), and deep processing of meat products. Particular attention is paid to the processing stage as a tool for hedging risks associated with falling prices for live animals. As part of the research, a series of stress tests were conducted under four main scenarios: critical growth in the cost of the feed base (grain group), a collapse in market prices for meat raw materials, rising logistics costs, and force majeure circumstances of martial law (energy terror and export blockades). Through simulation modeling, it is proved that vertical integration allows the enterprise to maintain a positive NPV and a stable operating cash flow (Cash Flow) even if key parameters deviate by 25–30% from the base plan. The result of the work is a constructed strategic response matrix that demonstrates the viability of the model. It is proved that having in-house processing and products with a long shelf life minimizes dependence on energy and logistics and ensures a high margin of financial safety. The practical significance of the study lies in the possibility of using the proposed algorithms by agro-holdings to optimize investment strategies and increase the strategic adaptability of the business under uncertainty in 2026–2028. The results obtained can be used by the management of agro-holdings to conduct internal risk audits and optimize investment programs. The proposed strategic response matrix allows managers to make informed decisions regarding the feasibility of increasing storage and processing capacities as survival tools in the turbulent market of 2026–2028.

Keywords: financial planning; stress testing; vertical integration; livestock farming; raw material autonomy; retort pouch; financial stability; scenario analysis.

Tabl.: 5. Formulae: 1. Bibl.: 15.

Polishchuk Oleksandr A. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Department of Entrepreneurship, Corporate and Spatial Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (21 600-richchia Str., Vinnytsia, 21021, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Polishchuk Olena T. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Entrepreneurship, Corporate and Spatial Economics, Vasyl’ Stus Donetsk National University (21 600-richchia Str., Vinnytsia, 21021, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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