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RESEARCH CENTRE FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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Liburkina L. M.

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Modeling of Cluster Structure and Digital Development Trajectories of EU Countries Using Machine Learning Methods
Shabelnyk T. V., Prokopovych S. V., Gvozdytskyi V. S., Teslenko D. A.

Shabelnyk, Tetiana V. et al. (2026) “Modeling of Cluster Structure and Digital Development Trajectories of EU Countries Using Machine Learning Methods.” Business Inform 5:266–276.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-5-266-276

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in English
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UDC 330.3:330.4

Abstract:
The rapid development of digital technologies is fundamentally transforming economic systems, business models and social processes. Digitalization is becoming a key factor in increasing the competitiveness of countries, contributing to innovative growth, more efficient resource management and the formation of new forms of interaction between citizens, business and the State. However, currently the level of digital development among countries within the EU is uneven. Both the digital infrastructure and the level of digital skills of the population and business differ. Therefore, it is becoming relevant to develop and implement a comprehensive approach to the analysis of digital transformation processes and mechanisms of digital evolution, which will allow identifying structural patterns and classifying groups of countries, as well as monitoring how countries move between different levels of digital development and under the influence of which factors. The aim of the work is to identify structural patterns of digital transformation and assess the positioning of countries in the EU digital space, as well as trace the trajectory of the digital evolution of states. The work substantiated that machine learning methods, namely hierarchical clustering methods and the transition matrix method, allow for a comprehensive study of the multidimensional structure of digital transformation, to distribute countries with similar digitalization profiles and to trace the trajectories of countries over time, which, in turn, will allow assessing the efficiency of EU policy within the framework of defined development strategies, to adjust and optimize it. Using the developed cluster analysis model, the differentiation of EU countries by the level of digital development in a defined multidimensional information and digital space was assessed. A model for analyzing the trajectories of digital development in EU countries was implemented based on a study of the cluster structure using a transition matrix, which allows assessing trends, stability and speed of digital change. According to the results of the study, the current state of digital development in EU countries was assessed, both general long-term trends and individual trajectories of particular countries were identified, influencing factors and possible scenarios for further digital evolution were identified, which will allow developing recommendations for increasing the efficiency of State policy in the field of digital development.

Keywords: modeling; digitalization; cluster analysis; transition matrix; digital transformation.

Fig.: 7. Tabl.: 3. Bibl.: 15.

Shabelnyk Tetiana V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of the Department, Department of Economic Cybernetics and System Analysis, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Prokopovych Svitlana V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Cybernetics and System Analysis, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Gvozdytskyi Vitalii S. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Economic Cybernetics and System Analysis, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61166, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Teslenko Danylo A. – Analyst, LLC IT SMARTFLEX (49/2 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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