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RESEARCH CENTER FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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Liburkina L. M.

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Adaptive Modeling of the Economic Development of Banks in Ukraine Under Martial Law
Shabelnyk T. V., Khodariev Y. M.

Shabelnyk, Tetiana V., and Khodariev, Yaroslav M. (2026) “Adaptive Modeling of the Economic Development of Banks in Ukraine Under Martial Law.” Business Inform 6:225–233.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-6-225-233

Section: Economic and Mathematical Modeling

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 336.71:519.86:355.4

Abstract:
Building an adequate model to assess the economic development of banks using standard profitability indicators is no longer enough in conditions of uncertainty caused by current crisis events in Ukraine. It is necessary to use a set of indicators that reflect a bank’s viability under martial law and its readiness for recovery. The aim of this study is to develop an adaptive model for assessing the economic development of Ukrainian banks during crises and high uncertainty, in order to create efficient strategies for economic growth based on it. Based on the analysis of theoretical and methodological aspects of modern research on the development of Ukraine’s banking system, the work substantiates that a bank’s economic development in uncertain conditions requires the implementation of continuous adaptation processes of internal business models to wartime and macroeconomic shocks to ensure the bank’s ability to maintain socioeconomic value for clients and the State. The integral indicator for assessing a bank’s economic development is defined through a function of four sub-indexes: financial stability, liquidity, technological resilience, and risk factor. The use of an additive relationship of indicators with multiplicative adjustment for the risk factor is substantiated. A recommendation system for evaluating weight coefficients for the economic development model of Ukrainian banks is proposed. To ensure the practical usability of the economic-mathematical model for evaluating a bank’s economic development and to provide meaningful interpretation for management and regulatory decisions, an interpretive scale for the values of the integral indicator of a bank’s economic development has been developed. The adaptive model for assessing the economic development of Ukrainian banks proposed in this work is based on a multiplicative adjustment of risk factors and the use of fuzzy logic tools to determine risk parameter values, providing a comprehensive and quantitatively measurable assessment of the economic development of Ukrainian banks during crises and high uncertainty. The model is subject to annual recalibration as data accumulates and the regulatory environment changes.

Keywords: adaptive modeling; assessment model; economic development; martial law; risk factors; fuzzy logic tools; Ukrainian banks.

Tabl.: 6. Formulae: 7. Bibl.: 15.

Shabelnyk Tetiana V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Head of the Department, Department of Economic Cybernetics and System Analysis, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61165, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Khodariev Yaroslav M. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Economic Cybernetics and Systems Analysis, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61165, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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