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RESEARCH CENTER FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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Liburkina L. M.

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Tax Revenues as the Basis of Fiscal Potential: Trends and Forecast Estimates
Mitchenko K. F.

Mitchenko, Kostiantyn F. (2026) “Tax Revenues as the Basis of Fiscal Potential: Trends and Forecast Estimates.” Business Inform 6:439–452.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-6-439-452

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 336.225.6:364.013:351.72

Abstract:
The article presents a comprehensive study of tax revenues as a key component of the fiscal potential of Ukraine’s consolidated budget amid full-scale armed aggression. Based on an analysis of statistical data from 2021–2025, three qualitatively distinct phases of fiscal evolution were identified: pre-war stability (UAH 1,453.8 billion, or 26.7% of GDP in 2021), crisis destabilization (a 14.2% drop in revenues, with their share in State budget income falling from 85.4% to 53.1% in 2022), and adaptive recovery (a record UAH 2,088.3 billion, or 27.1% of GDP in 2024). The conceptual and categorical framework of the study was clarified: the hierarchical relationship between the concepts of «fiscal potential», «tax potential», and «tax potential» was substantiated, a fiscal efficiency coefficient was introduced, as well as the concept of a structural fiscal gap. It has been found that martial law creates a double destructive effect – simultaneously reducing actual revenue levels and degrading the very base of fiscal potential. Using correlation-regression analysis methods (WLS, 2017–2025, R??=?0.963), the elasticity of tax revenues with respect to key factors was determined: wage fund (0.91), nominal GDP (0.87), and import volume (0.74); it was found that a 1?percentage point increase in the shadow economy reduces revenues by 0.3–0.5% of GDP, and the structural gap from martial law is estimated at UAH –342.4 billion annually. Three scenarios for forecasting revenues for 2026–2028 were developed: base (UAH 2.480–3.050 billion, 22.6–23.8% of GDP), optimistic (UAH 2.750–3.800 billion, approaching the target level of NSD-2030 at 27% of GDP), and pessimistic (UAH 2.150–2.420 billion, 20.6–20.9% of GDP); the inter-scenario gap in 2028 is UAH 1.380 billion (??10% of GDP). A set of practical recommendations has been formulated to boost fiscal potential: reducing the shadow economy (+1.5–2.0% of GDP), reforming the simplified taxation system (+0.5–0.8% of GDP), harmonizing excise and customs policies with EU standards (UAH +80–120 billion), reforming property taxation, and improving medium-term forecasting. A systemic implementation of these measures will help increase revenue share to 26–27% of GDP, reduce the budget deficit to 3.8% of GDP, and lower dependence on external financing.

Keywords: fiscal potential; tax revenues; consolidated budget; fiscal efficiency coefficient; structural fiscal gap; martial law; tax elasticity; scenario forecasting; reducing the shadow economy; national revenue strategy.

Tabl.: 5. Bibl.: 41.

Mitchenko Kostiantyn F. – Postgraduate Student, Department of Accounting and Finance, National Technical University «Kharkiv Polytechnic Institute» (2 Kyrpychova Str., Kharkіv, 61002, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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