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RESEARCH CENTER FOR INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT PROBLEMS of NAS of Ukraine (KHARKIV, UKRAINE)

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Liburkina L. M.

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Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Tourism Activity on the Foreign Trade Balance
Serpukhov M. Y., Palazhenko R. R.

Serpukhov, Maksym Yu., and Palazhenko, Ruslan R. (2026) “Improving the Methodology for Assessing the Impact of Tourism Activity on the Foreign Trade Balance.” Business Inform 8:258–268.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2026-8-258-268

Section: Economics of Trade and Services

Article is written in Ukrainian
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UDC 339.564:338.48

Abstract:
The relevance of this study stems from the fact that, despite being one of the largest sectors of the global economy, tourism lacks a clearly defined accounting framework within the System of National Accounts (SNA) and the balance of payments. Instead, it is measured from the demand side through the characteristics of inbound and outbound tourism. As a result, the outcomes of tourism activity are distributed across several items of the foreign trade balance, none of which reflects the industry’s overall contribution. For Ukraine, this issue became particularly acute during 2022–2025, when forcibly displaced persons began to be statistically classified as outbound tourists. The aim of the article is to examine how, and with what limitations, the results of tourism activity are reflected in the foreign trade balance, to assess the adequacy of the current methodology, and to substantiate directions for its improvement. The study employs methods of critical analysis of regulatory and methodological documents, structural-logical and comparative analysis, horizontal and vertical analysis of time series, and scientific generalization. The empirical basis of the research consists of the National Bank of Ukraine’s data on the «Travel» item for the period 2013–2025. The findings reveal that the share of travel imports in total imports of services increased from 35.8% in 2013 to 68.5% in 2022, while the share of travel exports in total exports of services simultaneously declined from 22.5% to 4.7%. The study identifies five methodological inconsistencies: fragmentation of accounting, the risk of double counting, insufficient coverage of cash and informal transactions, the misclassification of forced migration as tourism, and the limitations of estimation based on indirect data. For each inconsistency, the probable direction of statistical bias is determined. The research demonstrates that the balance of the «Travel» item is a valid indicator of the tourism sector’s performance only under conditions of a stable migration regime. During 2022–2025, however, it primarily measured the consequences of forced population displacement rather than the actual results of tourism activity. This constitutes the scientific novelty of the study. The article proposes introducing a Tourism Satellite Account (TSA) as a supplementary framework to the balance of payments, as well as creating an analytical category entitled «Expenditures of Forcibly Displaced Persons» within the Personal Travel component. The findings may be used in revising the methodology for compiling external sector statistics during the transition to BPM7.

Keywords: tourism activity; foreign trade balance; balance of payments; «Travel» item; invisible exports; travel balance; Tourism Satellite Account (TSA); forced migration.

Fig.: 2. Tabl.: 3. Bibl.: 18.

Serpukhov Maksym Yu. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Candidate on Doctor Degree, National Scientific Center «Institute of Agrarian Economics» of NAAS of Ukraine (10 Heroiv Oborony Str., Kyiv, 03680, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Palazhenko Ruslan R. – Postgraduate Student, Department of International Economics and Management, Simon Kuznets Kharkiv National University of Economics (9a Nauky Ave., Kharkiv, 61165, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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