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Fiscal Resilience amid Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Case of Taxation in Foreign Economic Operations
Korneev V. V., Rudyk N. V., Khmel N. B.

Korneev, Volodymyr V., Rudyk, Nataliia V., and Khmel, Nazar B. (2025) “Fiscal Resilience amid Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The Case of Taxation in Foreign Economic Operations.” Business Inform 8:360–370.
https://doi.org/10.32983/2222-4459-2025-8-360-370

Section: Finance, Money Circulation and Credit

Article is written in English
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UDC 336.7:336.748.2:338.45

Abstract:
The article examines the effect of currency fluctuations on the mechanisms of taxing foreign economic transactions in Ukraine. The aim of the study is to evaluate the role of customs payments in shaping the revenue component of Ukraine’s consolidated budget for 2020–2024, analyse how exchange rate volatility influences the accrual and payment of VAT on imports, identify the implications of crisis shocks for customs taxation, forecast tax earnings from key customs payments for 2025–2026 under baseline, optimistic, and pessimistic scenarios, and develop practical recommendations to enhance the fiscal sustainability of tax revenues amid currency fluctuations. The results indicated that customs payments declined by 36.2% in 2022, compared to the previous year due to reduced imports and the introduction of customs benefits. In 2023–2024, there was a gradual recovery driven by strengthened customs administration. An analysis of VAT on imports revealed a direct relationship with the USD/UAH exchange rate: every 1% increase in the US Dollar exchange rate resulted in an average revenue increase of 0.6%. The baseline forecast assumes an exchange rate of UAH/USD 45.19 by the end of 2025 and UAH/USD 47.00 in 2026, leading to VAT revenues from imports rising to UAH 593.2 billion in 2025 and UAH 753.4 billion in 2026. Optimistic and pessimistic scenarios illustrated how varying rates of devaluation could affect fiscal indicators and actual trade volumes. Based on these findings, recommendations were made, including supporting the expected exchange rate through efficient monetary policy, implementing automatic VAT refunds to exporters, adopting the reverse charge mechanism in B2B transactions, expanding the use of currency hedging tools, and digitalising customs and tax administration. These measures aim to enhance fiscal sustainability, increase tax revenues, and bolster Ukraine’s economic security amid global financial market volatility.

Keywords: fiscal resilience, exchange rate fluctuations, foreign economic activity, taxes, customs payments, forecasting of tax revenues.

Fig.: 3. Tabl.: 4. Bibl.: 20.

Korneev Volodymyr V. – Doctor of Sciences (Economics), Professor, Professor, Department of Finance named after V. M. Fedosov, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Rudyk Nataliia V. – Candidate of Sciences (Economics), Associate Professor, Associate Professor, Department of Finance named after V. M. Fedosov, Kyiv National Economic University named after Vadym Hetman (54/1 Beresteiskyi Ave., Kyiv, 03057, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]
Khmel Nazar B. – Chief Dealer, Department of Capital Markets, Raiffeisen Bank JSC (4A General Almazov Str., Kyiv, 01011, Ukraine)
Email: [email protected]

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